24 SEP 2021
Interruptions, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, have led to slumps and spikes in demand and supply. This has resulted in pressures on costs, particularly energy and some material costs. It is assumed that these effects will resolve themselves eventually, but they are expected to last well into next year.
The effect of Brexit on labour supply has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 restrictions on travel, and redeployment of furloughed staff which may put pressure on wages in the short term.
The forecast is based on information available up to 28 August 2021.
No allowance has been made for the National Insurance contribution changes recently announced for April 2022.